martes, 25 de junio de 2013 0 comentarios

End of the day review– breakevens and false signals.

-Describe the market sentiment

Hell for trend followers or decent move swing traders, I know the calendar was relatively light, but the amount of signals to go long and short is overwhelming, and I can’t even pick a not-trading range because it’s too wide, I’m trapped and my options are to stop trading or keep trying until the market breaks either way, Ed Seykota’s song is in my head.

So far I had 8 false signals in a day, and that’s a record, that’s right, I’ve never seen something like it.

I was trusting on my ‘Speak UP’  pattern to provide some clear signals as the trendlines widen, but so far it’s not the case.

And these big spikes both ways are telling me 2 things, that traders want direction or they want to go bear/bull hunting, unfortunately… I’m both.

Not only that, my USD/JPY trade also got a breakeven and my Nikkei short once again hold that horrid trendline.

-Describe your biases if any

None… I know I’m in no man’s land, both sides have big potential to give significant profits.

-Post Relevant Data

Can’t post charts right now.

-The Good and The Bad

The Good: I’m still alive
The Bad: I officially had the worst month ever, after the two best months ever.

-Mindset Log

Well, there’s some thoughts I want to write down.

  • The day of the FOMC when the Aussie broke lower I knew I had the chance to get short but I didn’t want to trade, I had recently bad experiences with news trading and that kept me away. Thus said, I knew the consolidation of this process could be substantial and maybe the next week (this one) would be hard to trade, and it seems I’m not wrong with that, yet here I am trading noise.
  • I’ve missed many trades in the beginning of the month, many big profitable trades, sadly, I catch very little of those good trades, and yet here I am, trading noise.
  • Next week will come with some Aussie releases, maybe that will get this pair going somewhere.
lunes, 24 de junio de 2013 0 comentarios

End of the day review–all about spikes and noise!

-Describe the market sentiment

In consolidation mode after the FOMC event and Bernanke Speech, with no relevant long term support besides 0.90, I’m taking every short signals despite I get them late after a big drop, and that’s the case, in a fast paced market, moving averages make you suffer.

Daily ATR is currently at 122 pips, that’s really big, I decreased my position sizing because I’m not getting good entries, so I’m widening my stops, and my profit potential has decreased greatly, I’m not used to trade in this environment. So when ATR hits 90 again I’ll go back to my normal position sizing.

-Describe your biases if any

Bearish – Aussie rallies keep fading because there’s no reason to go long besides it’s oversold, it doesn’t have any big support and we there’s a light calendar this week in Australia.

-Post Relevant Data

Price action is widening so it implies my signals have bigger targets, we’re getting out of consolidation at a slow pace this week.

AUDUSDM30_24Jun_13

-Charting Entries and Exits

Taking Hashi signals with wide stops, decreasing position sizing, I can double my position if it looks favorable, nothing beyond that.

-The Good and The Bad

Good: 1 Winner
Bad: 2 losers and 2 Winners turned into losers, I refused to breakeven with the winners and I woke up with a big, big 90 pips spike right onto my SL.

-The Day Ahead - Levels and Patterns

0.93 short term resistance
0.9145 short term support

I’m more biased to the downside because I’m sick for waiting for a pullback that never comes, I’m pretty sure that when it gets there I won’t be able to catch it.

-Mindset Log

There is no way I could get into green territory this month with the decreased position sizing and I don’t like that!, but at least I’m stopping myself from bigger losers as well.

jueves, 13 de junio de 2013 0 comentarios

$AUDUSD End of the day review

-Describe the market sentiment

At the start of the day Aussie remained on a bearish tone, trading unemployment was a bad idea because it remained volatile without a clear direction, then it seemed to go lower when things calmed down, but it didn’t fall below 0.9426 and shoot higher to challenge 0.95, there again price got choppy but as it formed a triangle pattern my guess is that it had to shoot somewhere, my guess was down because of Nikkei crashing and global stocks going lower, but it shoot higher instead.

-Describe your biases if any

I’ve been waiting for a pullback for some time, and I got more losses than profits trading the noise at these consolidation levels, but I’m sticking to technicals short term and fundamentals long term, Aussie direction is still down but I’m currently playing a rising channel, I won’t question it and I’ll ride it till it breaks.

-Post Relevant Charts & Data

AUDUSDM30_June_13_13


-The Good and The Bad

Good: got a big winner finally, understood that I couldn’t trade a tighter stop than the ATR on my strategy, realized that I have to let go my fear of missing out.

Bad: I have way too many losses, it will be hard to recover in two weeks to end the month in positive, and lost valuable opportunities.

-The Day Ahead - Levels and Patterns

AUDUSDM30_June_13_13_A

AUDUSDH4_June_13_13

-Mindset Log

My confidence is quite fragile right now since I’ve made a lot of mistakes due to overtrading, fear of missing out, change of market behavior and technical issues.

Despite there’s a persistent risk of Aussie selling off I’m going to stick to technicals because I don’t feel confident to make bold calls based on my perception of price action.

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domingo, 2 de junio de 2013 0 comentarios

$AUDUSD The Week Ahead

If know something is that for sure Aussie will be volatile this week, so much important data from US, China and Australia itself will give traders a good opportunity depending on how good or bad the data will be.

AUDUSD_Data_Week_June_02_2013

There is also some technical levels that need to be broken for more downside, but the levels I’m worried about are in M30 and W1 charts, lets take a look:

M3o
We got a small inverse head and shoulders pattern at Friday Close, but the last candle looked so big that I don’t think the pattern will hold, remember China PMI Data early this Monday, that could be the trigger for 0.96 regained or 0.95 challenged again.

AUDUSDM30_June_02_2013

W1
We got the triangle broken and price is very close to 2011 October Low 0.9386, but price must break 0.95 first, after that… there is no support, only round numbers and 0.8056 from June 2010, and that would be a far bigger drop than what we’ve seen the last weeks.

AUDUSDW1_June_02_2013

One data important to notice is that COT Data is very low, but it doesn’t seem like it has reached an extreme yet, short positions are at +82k, increasing by 1.6k from last week.

AUDUSDCOTW1_June_02_2013

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viernes, 31 de mayo de 2013 0 comentarios

Awesome close - Awesome month

I closed early Wednesday this month because I have a test and I've done poorly in my subjects, however, trading on the other hand, had been quite an experience!

This month I ended placing 44 trades, up +8 trades from last month, actually, it's a lot, and I blame overtrading, but why did I overtrade? I blame college, I missed 3 terrific trades thanks to being away from the screens, listening to boring tech classes while the Aussie was getting crushed and one other very good trade missed because my PC decided to take a nap, all that sent me trying to make trades with poor entries, being whipsawed everywhere, when I was right about direction.

One thing about entries!.. When you don't get the price you want, you get all nervous, and your confidence fades, it's actually better not to trade if you do not get the right level you want to trade, some people call it chasing the market, but I felt like the market was chasing my stops instead.

And everything started so pretty, going up by little, then there I was missing my trades, and then trying to claim it as the market had to wait for me to get back from my classes, the market doesn't care about my other responsibilities.

So I sunk my account more than 5% erasing all the year winners, honestly it made me feel so bad about myself, the Aussie was very fast paced and I just couldn't follow, the timing was never right and I was just out of sync, with my tight stops, I needed very good entries, if I don't have that, the odds move against me really quickly, my edge disappears.

After writing all this down, I just don't know what happened, how did I end up almost 7%?

My guess is that I kept my confidence on my feel of the price action, there was no reason for a big pullback, the thin calendar this week gave no reasons for going bullish, so the market only had almost the same information, the momentum didn't fade and the trades were kinda obvious, yet scary for almost the vertical decline in the Aussie, though I made money both buying and selling, the shorts paid off, 2 of them almost erased all previous losses.

Its funny that I lost all hope of being positive this month!

This makes me trust on my decision of using big leverage, tight stops, and holding trades longer, it's a winning combination if I have the discipline.

June will bring a lot of opportunities, I have an open mind about what could happen, new lows, parity regained, or consolidation, what I know is that I'll be trading for 100 pip winners if the market lets me, after a drop like that volatility will remain and I trust on this for having high RR opportunities.

domingo, 12 de mayo de 2013 0 comentarios

$AUDUSD The Parity Play

There are two events that could trigger another low in $AUDUSD:

  1. Chinese Data (Retail Sales and Industrial Production)
    Due to 5:30 GMT – Impact is medium and IMO I do not think it would have a greater impact, however if its too bad it could make the pair vulnerable.
  2. US Retail Sales
    Due to 12:30 GMT - Since the last week one of the major topics was the overall USD Strenght, US Data may have a greater impact and could send the Aussie lower.

    The two charts I’m looking right now:

    AUDUSDM30_May_13_13

    AUDUSDD1_May_13_13

The best case scenario for me is a strong break of 0.9960 to around 0.9880, then a good rebound would also be into consideration.

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viernes, 10 de mayo de 2013 0 comentarios

Weekend Trading Thoughts (May 10)

  • From my point of view it was an horrible week, the news made the market noisy for the most part of the time, waiting for the big releases, I felt forced to trade the news on a strengthening downtrend that would not give pullback opportunities.
  • Slippage was the common part of most of my trades, both didn’t help me at all but hurt me and one hurt me really bad, the jobs report.
  • Despite the big numbers in AUD Unemployment I remained bearish, but I expected some consolidation after that big jump, I sold at the very top, just for 20 pips, the market sold off immediately and I was at the University when Aussie broke 1.0150, I was out of the game.
  • There still was parity in play, but reluctantly to use wider stop I felt any short was very vulnerable.
  • Then I made one of those trades you make just for the sake of relieve the pain, I shorted again for another small profit.
  • And so the week ends, with a bittersweet taste I end the week 4% up and not even happy, for the risks I took and the chances I lost.
 
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