$AUDUSD The Parity Play

There are two events that could trigger another low in $AUDUSD:

1. Chinese Data (Retail Sales and Industrial Production)
   Due to 5:30 GMT – Impact is medium and IMO I do not think it would have a greater impact, however if its too bad it could make the pair vulnerable.
2. US Retail Sales
   Due to 12:30 GMT - Since the last week one of the major topics was the overall USD Strenght, US Data may have a greater impact and could send the Aussie lower.
   
   The two charts I’m looking right now:
   
   
   
   

The best case scenario for me is a strong break of 0.9960 to around 0.9880, then a good rebound would also be into consideration.

Technorati Tags: AUDUSD,Parity,Trading,FX,Forex

Weekend Trading Thoughts (May 10)

• From my point of view it was an horrible week, the news made the market noisy for the most part of the time, waiting for the big releases, I felt forced to trade the news on a strengthening downtrend that would not give pullback opportunities.
• Slippage was the common part of most of my trades, both didn’t help me at all but hurt me and one hurt me really bad, the jobs report.
• Despite the big numbers in AUD Unemployment I remained bearish, but I expected some consolidation after that big jump, I sold at the very top, just for 20 pips, the market sold off immediately and I was at the University when Aussie broke 1.0150, I was out of the game.
• There still was parity in play, but reluctantly to use wider stop I felt any short was very vulnerable.
• Then I made one of those trades you make just for the sake of relieve the pain, I shorted again for another small profit.
• And so the week ends, with a bittersweet taste I end the week 4% up and not even happy, for the risks I took and the chances I lost.

$AUDUSD Monday May 6 Review

Today most trading orders went pretty well, a lot of news trading this week, a lot of: “Look at that spread!” or “Blaming Slippage” or “Jumping early”, but hey, what’s a trader if he/she doesn’t take any risks.

First trade started with Retail Sales, sold too late and I price reversed exactly at my SL level, then China PM data came badly so I gave it another shot, proving me right in my strategy, the current trendline was broken and a triple bottom was in place.

Then I waited the whole day for RBA to release it’s rate decision, I decided not to risk too much so I didn’t place any trade before the data, a sell stop order at 1.0220 near the triple bottom seemed quite cool, the problem was…
it seems there wasn’t any order around 1.0220 and I got a 20 pips slippage, but hey! I still managed to get a little winner from this release.

An hard earned 3% in a very busy day from both technicals and fundamentals, well played, I’ll give myself a cookie.

Technorati Tags: AUDUSD,RBA,Trading,FX

$AUDUSD Some cool charts before the start (May 5-10)

H1 Chart shows a nice uptrend line that could be tested sooner than later this week, last week NFP provided a boost on plenty of risk assets but that doesn’t mean the Australian economy is doing well, so I don’t think this rally is going to last, it depends on Aussie data this week.

The rally made its way to the 61.8 Fibo, a support level that’s going to be tested this very Monday.

As we still on a bearish trend I’ll keep looking for short opportunities, 1.0220 is the support level to watch after a double bottom was set in place, I’d rather sell high if I have the chance and wait until this level gets tested so I can have a high RR trade.

Below we can see all relevant Aussie Data this week:

Weekend Trading Thoughts

• It seems I still have some flaws in my discipline, I sold many times at bottom around 1.0280 because I was really sure it should go lower, this proves once again why it’s bad to have strong opinions about the market, it prevents you from listening what it has to say.
• I’m up 10,7% so far and still a week left, I’ve never been so profitable in a month, let’s preserve the money and spot clear trading opportunities for the last week of April.
• Trading bigger makes you realize how important are transaction costs, I’m always fighting to get the best price with my broker, now I’m doing the math, and it seems my broker is really happy with me, and I’m not even a scalper.
• Setting some money apart for you is really important, so you can sense the possibilities of your work and what you are capable to achieve.
• Despite I have a strong discipline it seems my mood always changes as my account moves up or down, I think it’s the price of being discretionary, you got to handle the pressure of how good you listen to the markets.

Weekend Trading Thoughts

• When a trendline is formed and I get in early, I  have to go for the jugular, those moments may happen only once or twice in a month.
• You can forget totally about moving averages when you have a good trendline on your side, it will save you a lot of false signals, it really has improved my trading.
• My computer crashed and I missed a Friday short signal, after losing one trade, bye bye to a 5% winner, and it makes me think about how important is having a very good equipment, it can cost me a lot of money in the long run, right now I have this laptop for studying, surfing, trading and gaming, the poor baby cannot handle that much.
• I’ve been so mad at Metaquotes decision of banning 3rd party software, besides that, the new MetaTrader update has very bad 1-click buying feature,  I can’t customize orders, or entry/exit points, if they only would do something equal or better, yet they forbid the whole software and provide a crappy copycat version, it’s really something embarrassing.
• The closer I am to erase my drawdown, the more anxious I get, maybe it’s because I tend to imagine that success is beyond that line, like it’s my graduation or something, like I’m proved to be a trader, also I will increase my balance when that happens, and I’ll be closer to trade for a living. All these thoughts go around my head, yet there’s discipline in my actions, I trade with few or zero emotions, and I’m very proud that I’m not doing some weird stuff, trying something week after week like if it was some kind of amusement park.
• I’m moving on quite quickly after losses, less pain and regret.
• The more success I’m having as a trader, the less interest I have for my career. I think it’s something understandable, but I am so close that I think I must finish it no matter what, even if my performance gets affected.
• Focus has brought a lot of free time, and I’m trying to see if I can do something worthy.

Weekend Trading Thoughts

I What did I learn or do this week?

• I think I will never leave a trade open over the weekend with 10 or 5 leverage, let’s just put it in numbers, 1% gap could be a 10% loss (or win), and I don’t want to start the week with such event.
• Moving Averages do suck when they’re alone, I’ve been trying to figure out what to use in combination, and I don’t find anything better than breakout patterns, because most false signals occur inside tight ranges, this is the best way to avoid such thing and focus on what’s important.
• I’m writing my trading method so it could stop being discretionary and it’s getting larger and larger with so many rules, I’m wondering if I can backtest this properly in the future, I’m just trying to see if I can get more disciplined because trading trends + patterns are quite subjective.
• It’s the first and last time I average down on a trade, I feel so ashamed that I broke this great rule.
• I feel so bad that I’m missing so impressive Nikkei rallies and Yen selloff, the BOJ is actually telling me to frontrun them and I’m just reluctant to do it because I’m just trading one pair.
• I really need one-two more screens and a new computer.
• By the way I’m trading, it’s so awesome to experience a streak of very bad losses and then you recover in a couple trades, it makes me think actually, that I must work harder to avoid those trades that seemed valid but somewhat stupid, by trying to guess the direction of the new trends, I hope breakouts and trading inside ranges help me to accomplish this.
• I missed two good bullish trends this week, despite that I got out profitable this Friday.
• I’m looking at several ways to be more disciplined in my trading, from blogging to having more rules and routines, despite I’m doing good, I feel I’m wasting too much my days and learning/doing nothing.